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Wall Street Says the US Economy Needs Trump To Win in November 2020

July 06, 2020 2 min read

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The executives on Wall Street are suggesting that Trump must win the election, otherwise the stock market could take a critical hit. Klebnikov explains in his article (Forbes, 2020) that Joe Biden rising in some polls is causing unrest for the US economy stakeholders.

 

According to RealClearPolitics average of national polls, the former vice president has a 10bpts advantage over the Donald J Trump - due to the uncertainty in swing states like Pennyslvania, Wisconsin, Michigan or Florida.

 

However, it is important to note that RealClearPolitics also predicted Hilary Clinton to win in 2016 with a 2.1 bpts difference, the day before the 2016 election. Alternatively, Investors Business Daily, has been proven to be America’s most accurate national poll in the 2004, 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, accurately predicting the Trump election in 2016.

Similarly, the Investors Business Daily explain that Trump approval has dropped since his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

  

Although the stock market has recovered significantly and all the 50 states are striving to re-open their economies, the Trump administration has not been successfully benefiting from the “rally around the flag” effect it did in 2016.

 

His disapproval rating among adults is 13%, with 38% approval and 51% disapproval - a significant drop from a month ago where a tied 44% approved and disapproved him.

 

There are several factors, beyond the worldwide COVID-19 crisis that can give reason to the dive in Trump popularity.

For example, the nationwide protests over the death of George Floyd have caused an aggressive response by law enforcement against looting and property destruction. Indeed, although Trump explained that George Floyd’s murder was a “grave tragedy”, he also encouraged law enforcement to crack down on protestors destroying statues and property. A series of “racially charged” tweets did not do the President justice as protesters gathered outside the White House in Washington DC. Although the protestors claimed to be peaceful, and no one penetrated the well-guarded gates, Donald J. Trump was brought down into a security bunker with his family for protocol safety measures.

 

According to Forbes (2020) Biden has topped Trump in terms of fundraising in June, which shows that the Trump campaign needs to work harder to regain traction against the Biden candidacy.

 

Wall Street is mainly concerned that all corporate taxes will increase if Biden is elected, because he claimed in December 2019 that he would roll back on Trump’s signature tax cut legislation - that had a tremendous success with corporate profits.

 

If the Republicans maintain the control of the Senate, it would make it more challenging for Democrats to enact major economic reforms. This is a necessity because the sweeping of Democrats, according to finance executives and analysts could cause increased regulation and high tax rates. The regulation and taxes would hinder the ability of businesses to take larger loans and reduce the confidence of investors.

 

It is essential that Trump improves the COVID-19 situation, increasing the chances of a vaccine, more stimulus and faster growth to increase his numbers in the polls.

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